1
I gave $5 to a beggar today. He was on a corner with a very small dog, and a smaller sign made from a ripped cardboard box that said something like “Charlie and me need help.” They bring the dogs because they know it works. Safe and warm behind the closed truck windows, we commented on the fact that we knew were being manipulated, but we couldn't resist the little dog in its little dog jacket.
It seemed the right thing to do, and as we drove away we could imagine the dog enjoying a tasty can of food at the end of the workday. We only had slight discomfort contemplating the fact that we had never given the beggar any money until we saw the dog, though he was a regular on the corner.
When we got home I discovered I had acquired my first paid subscription on Turtle Paradise, and should find $5 in my account within the week. Coincidence? Sure, probably, but how do we know for sure? I’m not a religious person and don't intend to become one, but I think we all need a little of the “how can we know for sure" in each day. Despite the arrogant promises of science, there are things that we will never know, and this is a good thing. Coincidences may be the Universe's way of saying “you're not the boss of me,” and gently putting us in our place.
Ultimately it doesn't matter where the events of today fall on the spectrum between pure chance and omniscient alien overlords messing with me. What matters is how we behave, and acting with humility and the belief that we can't know everything will put us in a much better place than where we're headed if we follow those who believe we will someday know it all.
2
A while back when I was relatively new to keeping horses, a friend observed a corner of our pasture and remarked on how much greener it was than other areas. He deduced that the heathy color was a result of being downstream of our leachfield, and further surmised from the height of the vegetation that the horses instinctively avoided it because they sensed contamination.
His assumptions weren't unreasonable and made sense based on his cursory observations, but they were totally wrong. The effects of the septic system were negligible; the patch was green and lush because it was low lying and damp, and had not been mowed regularly. What my friend perceived at a distance to be lush grasses were in reality unpalatable weeds. The horses looked elsewhere for sweet tasting clovers and fescues, leaving the tough and tasteless growth unmolested.
My friend made some good guesses, but arrived at fundamentally wrong conclusions. When presented with a differing assessment of the patch in question he was reluctant to give up his opinion though it arose mainly from assumptions rather than rigorous examination, no doubt partly because the neat, logical package it formed was so appealing.
This isn't a tale of how I was right and he was wrong. It's a story about how I was wrong too. After witnessing my friend's judgement in action I turned around and did the exact same thing. I saw in paddocks a lush growth of grasses and continued to turn the horses out into these areas. I knew this was stuff they loved because I had examined it — it wasn't weeds mimicking tasty grass, but the real thing. I assumed they were happily muching away at it, and that it stayed lush because these areas were naturally more fertile. Had taken the time to investigate I would have observed a very important fact: The grass was high and green because it was in the horses self-designated toilet area.
Horses often choose an area to poop in, then don't eat the grass there. Whether this is instinctual behavior or the grass just tastes bad there I don't know. They were ignoring the toilet grass and instead returning again and again to their favorite spots to consume the tiny sprouts emerging from the approximately five plants that they deemed suitable for consumption. Had I been paying closer attention sooner, I would have figured out what was happening and planned for it as best I could. As it was, it took me a while to catch on, and some damage was done.
I was more assiduous than my friend in gathering information, but committed the same mistake. Knowledge is not inoculum for preventing mistakes, but a guarantee of endless mistakes. Soon I will look back, aghast at the mistakes I am making right now. And then the process will repeat…
Nice essay. I've been enjoying your work and today you remind us that life is fickle and it's good to have critical observing skills along with critical thinking skills. Also, I'm glad I'm not the only one worried about omniscient alien overlords. I can't quite believe that just one person is paying for this labor of love. I'm gonna stop be a deadbeat. I'm upgrading right... now.